Polonia a primit de curand ok-ul Departamentului de Stat sa achizitioneze un batalion de rachete tactice HIMARS. La fel ca in cazul Patriot multe negocieri pentru nimic, pentru ca la final (asa cum am mai scris) Varsovia n-a primit nici offset, nici vreun transfer tehnologic, cumpara sistemul exact asa cum il cumparam si noi: platesti cu cardul si curierul iti aduce batalionul acasa.
Evident, exista o diferenta de pret in (aparent macar) defavoarea Poloniei. Nu mai insistam pe sistemele Patriot, mergem direct la HIMARS.
Conform DSCA
Iordania 2015 – pentru comparatie
The Government of Jordan has requested a possible sale of 72 M31 Unitary Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) Rocket Pods (6 rockets per pod for a total of 432), support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, personnel training and equipment, systems integration support, U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, and other related elements of logistics support. The estimated cost is $192 million.
Finlanda 2015 – pentru comparatie
The Government of Finland has requested a possible sale of forty (40) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Pods: Fifteen Pods of M31A1 Unitary Missiles (6 missiles per pod for a total of 90 missiles) and 25 Pods of M30A1 Alternative Warhead Missiles (6 missiles per pod for a total of 150 missiles). Also included are publications, personnel training and training equipment, software development, U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical and logistics support services, and other related elements of logistical and program support. The total estimated cost is $150 million.
Romania 2017 (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and Related Support and Equipment)
The Government of Romania has requested the possible sale of fifty-four (54) High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) Launchers, eighty-one (81) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) M31A1 Unitary, eighty-one (81) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) M30A1 Alternative Warhead, fifty-four (54) Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) M57 Unitary, twenty-four (24) Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (AFATDS), fifteen (15) M1151A1 HMMWVs, Utility, Armored, and fifteen (15) M1151A1 HMMWVs, Armor Ready 2-Man. Also included with this request are: fifty-four (54) M1084A1P2 HIMARS Resupply Vehicles (RSVs) (5 ton, Medium Tactical Cargo Vehicle with Material Handling Equipment), fifty-four (54) M1095 MTV Cargo Trailer with RSV kit, and ten (10) M1089A1P2 FMTV Wreckers (5 Ton Medium Tactical Vehicle Wrecker with Winch), thirty (30) Low Cost Reduced Range (LCRR) practice rockets, support equipment, communications equipment, sensors, spare and repair parts, test sets, batteries, laptop computers, publications and technical data, facility design, training and training equipment, systems integration support, Quality Assurance Teams and a Technical Assistance Fielding Team, U.S. Government and contractor technical, engineering, and logistics support services, and other related elements of logistics and program support. The total estimated program cost is $1.25 billion.
Polonia 2017 (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS))
The Government of Poland has requested to purchase sixteen (16) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) M31A1 Unitary, nine (9) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) M30A1 alternative warheads, sixty-one (61) Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) M57 Unitary. Also included are eight (8) Universal Position Navigation Units (UPNU), thirty-four (34) Low Cost Reduced Range (LCRR) practice rockets, one thousand six hundred forty-two (1,642) Guidance and Control Section Assemblies for GMLRS, Missile Common Test Sets and Devices, testing Precision, Lightweight GPS Receivers (PLGR), support equipment, U.S. Government and contractor services, training, and other related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated cost is $250 million.
Polonia 2018 (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and Related Support and Equipment)
Poland has requested to buy twenty (20) High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) M142 Launchers, thirty-six (36) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) M31 Unitary, nine (9) Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) M30A1 Alternative Warheads, thirty (30) Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) M57 Unitary, twenty-four (24) Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (AFATDS), twenty (20) Multiple Launcher Pod Assembly M68A2 Trainers, twenty-four (24) M1151A1 High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs), and nine (9) M1151A1 High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheel Vehicles (HMMWVs). Also included are twenty (20) Low Cost Reduced Range (LCRR) practice rockets, support equipment, communications equipment, spare and repair parts, test sets, batteries, laptop computers, publications and technical data, facility design, personnel training and equipment, systems integration support, Quality Assurance Teams and a Technical Assistance Fielding Team, United States Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, and other related elements of logistics support, training, sensors, and other related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated cost is $655 million.
Punand cumparaturile in perspectiva:
| Item | Romania 2017 | Polonia 2017 | Polonia 2018 | Iordania 2015 | Finlanda 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) M142 Launchers | 54 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) M31A1 Unitary | 81 | 16 | 36 | 72 | 15 |
| Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) M30A1 Alternative Warhead | 81 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 25 |
| Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) M57 Unitary | 54 | 61 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (AFATDS) | 24 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| M1151A1 HMMWVs, Utility, Armored | 15 | – | – | 0 | 0 |
| M1151A1 HMMWVs, Armor Ready 2-Man | 15 | – | – | 0 | 0 |
| M1084A1P2 HIMARS Resupply Vehicles (RSVs) | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M1095 MTV Cargo Trailer with RSV kit | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M1089A1P2 FMTV Wreckers | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Low Cost Reduced Range (LCRR) practice rockets | 30 | 34 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Multiple Launcher Pod Assembly M68A2 Trainers | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| M1151A1 High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs) | – | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| M1151A1 High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheel Vehicles (HMMWVs) | – | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Guidance and Control Section Assemblies for GMLRS | – | 1642 | – | – | – |
| Universal Position Navigation Units (UPNU) | – | ? | – | – | – |
| Lightweight GPS Receivers (PLGR) | – | ? | – | – | – |
| Total | 1,250,000 kUSD | 250,000 kUSD | 655,000 kUSD | 192,000 kUSD | 150,000 kUSD |
Pentru a putea face o analiza este nevoie sa plecam de la o impartire a costurilor, care are la baza preturile. Lista de preturi de mai jos se bazeaza pe informatii publice, ele fiind considerate maximale.
- Vehicul, remorca: ~1000 kUSD
- ATACMS: 750-820-1100 kUSD; vom folosi estimarea de 1300 kUSD/lansator (racheta ?)
- M31: ~120 kUSD * 6 = 720 kUSD; maxim 2000 kUSD; vom folosi estimarea de 1000 kUSD/pachet
- M30: ~150 kUSD * 6 = 900 kUSD; maxim 2000 kUSD; vom folosi estimarea de 1000 kUSD/pachet
- HMMV: ~160 kUSD original, 250-341 kUSD noile variante in functie de protectie; vom folosi estimarea de 350 kUSD
- Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (AFATDS) – 20 kUSD
- Low Cost Reduced Range (LCRR): 4.5 kUSD pe baza unui contract, 10 kUSD folosit
- Multiple Launcher Pod Assembly M68A2 Trainers: estimat la 100 kUSD
Reluam tabelul de mai sus, doar pentru Romania si Polonia, cu cantitati si sume estimate. Ne prezinta o imagine de ansamblu.
| Item | Romania 2017 | Polonia 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantitate | Suma (kUSD) | Cantitate | Suma (kUSD) | |
| High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) M142 Launchers | 54 | 54,000 | 20 | 20,000 |
| Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) M31A1 Unitary | 81 | 81,000 | 36 | 36,000 |
| Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) M30A1 Alternative Warhead | 81 | 81,000 | 9 | 9,000 |
| Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) M57 Unitary | 54 | 70,200 | 30 | 39,000 |
| Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (AFATDS) | 24 | 480 | 24 | 480 |
| M1151A1 HMMWVs, Utility, Armored | 15 | 5,250 | – | – |
| M1151A1 HMMWVs, Armor Ready 2-Man | 15 | 5,250 | – | – |
| M1084A1P2 HIMARS Resupply Vehicles (RSVs) | 54 | 54,000 | 0 | 0 |
| M1095 MTV Cargo Trailer with RSV kit | 54 | 54,000 | 0 | 0 |
| M1089A1P2 FMTV Wreckers | 10 | 10,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Low Cost Reduced Range (LCRR) practice rockets | 30 | 300 | 20 | 200 |
| Multiple Launcher Pod Assembly M68A2 Trainers | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2,000 |
| M1151A1 High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs) | – | – | 24 | 8,400 |
| M1151A1 High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheel Vehicles (HMMWVs) | – | – | 9 | 3.150 |
| Total contract | 1,250,000 kUSD | 655,000 kUSD | ||
| Total fier | 415,480 kUSD | 118,230 kUSD | ||
| Diferenta (servicii) | 834,520 kUSD | 536,770 kUSD | ||
| communications equipment | ||||
| sensors | ||||
| spare and repair parts | ||||
| test sets | ||||
| batteries | ||||
| laptop computers | ||||
| publications and technical data | ||||
| facility design | ||||
| training and training equipment | ||||
| systems integration support | ||||
| Quality Assurance Teams and a Technical Assistance Fielding Team | ||||
| U.S. Government and contractor technical, engineering, logistics support services | ||||
| other related elements of logistics and program support | ||||
| personnel training and equipment | ||||
| United States Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services | ||||
| other related elements of logistics support | ||||
| training | ||||
Analiza
Astfel Romania va plati 1,25 miliarde de dolari pentru 54 de unitati de lansare (trei batalioane), 81 de seturi de rachete GMLRS M31A1 Unitary – 488 de rachete, 81 pachete GMLRS M30A1 Alternative Warhead – 488 rachete si 54 de rachete cu raza de 300km ATACMS M 57 Unitary, plus restul de hangarale.
Polonia va plati 655 milioane de dolari pentru 20 de unitati de lansare, 36 de pachete GMLRS Unitary – 216 rachete, 9 pachete M30A1 Alternative Warhead – 54 de rachete si 30 de ATACMS.
Daca facem o comparatie directa, pastrand proportile desigur, observam ca Romania iese in avantaj din cam toate punctele de vedere, astfel in cazul rachetelor M31A1 Unitary Romania va detine o medie de 9 rachete per lansator (488/54), Polonia aproape 11 rachete per lansator, in cazul rachetelor GMLRS M30A1 Alternative Warhead, noi pastram media de 9 rachete per masina (488/54), polonezii coboara dramatic la doar sub 3 rachete per lansator, in cazul ATACAMS noi avem un raport de 1:1, polonezii de 1:1,25.
Intrebarea care se pune este de ce atunci polonezii platesc cam 32,75 milioane de dolari per masina lansatoare (655 de milioane per batalion), iar Romania plateste doar 23,14 milioane de dolari per masina (416 milioane de dolari per batalion)?!
Ei bine, din datele de mai sus se poate observa potentialul vinovat, care de aceasta data este unul tehnic, fata de achizitia Patriot: pur si simplu orice achizitie de acest tip (atunci cand este de la zero – fara alte sisteme similare in dotare) implica niste costuri fixe.
Daca achizitionezi 54 de instalatii de lansare sau 20 (cazul Poloniei) aceste costuri fixe par sa fie aceleasi si, astfel, cei care cumpara mai multe sisteme isi impart costurile fixe pe mai multe batalioane, pretul per batalion fiind astfel mai mic.
De invatat din acesta diferenta de pret ar fi ideea ca nu renteaza sa cumperi un batalion (cu costuri fixe de peste 450 milioane de dolari) si este recomandat sa cumperi mai multe odata (tot in jur de 450 milioane costuri fixe). Polonezii, daca nu vor sa aiba cel mai scump HIMARS din lume, trebuie sa aiba in vedere achizitii ulterioare, pentru ca oricum ori cu 18 lansatoare, ori fara ele tot un drac…
Aceasta matematica simpla se aplica, evident, in cazul oricarei achizitii si arata in mod foarte clar banii aruncati pe geam in cazul achizitiilor de tip „bazar indian”. Nu este deloc indicat sa achizitionezi sisteme silmilare de la producatori diferiti pentru ca (pe langa cosmarul logistic si cu munitia) platesti si foarte mult la operationalizarea diferitelor sisteme (vezi „costurile fixe”).
Ca o diferenta intre noi si polaci, ei nu cumpara si camioanele grele aferente, incercand probabil sa monteze „fierataniile” pe Jeleczul local.
PS – Cu toate acestea nu e nimic sigur, planurile de finantare ale ministerului apararii polonez pentru 2019 nu prevad bani alocati catre HIMARS decat daca s-ar lua de la alte capitole.
Iulian
GeorgeGMT